Why Elon Musk will sell Twitter to Facebook and why the ruling coalition in Germany will collapse catapulting Bund yields to 3%. And why you will pay this summer in Mykonos & Ibiza minimum 1000 USD per hotel night and why Patek & Audemars watch prices will recover.
Also why we think that the bitcoin price will fall to zero. Plus our prediction for the US 2024 presidential elections and why oil & gas money will buy the worlds most expensive painting for half a billion dollars.
Enjoy the read.
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Politics Incredible Predictions for 2023
We predict that in 2023 Joe Biden will step-aside due to health reasons and vice-president Kamala Harris will succeed him.
Besides keeping pressure high on Russia, Harris will be the presidential hopeful for the US elections due for November 5th 2024. We predict that she will face Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who according to our predictions will be the 47th president of the United States.
Buy: DowJones ETF
India is the new China. We expect for the national elections in the largest democracy in the world due latest May 2024 will confirm president Narendra Modis position.
India will become investors darling in the next years due to rising population, a capitalist albeit bureaucratic system and increasing upwards mobility despite the stifling caste system with social networks help overcoming social barriers
Market Action: buy India ETFs
We expect that the German coalition government between Social Democrats, the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats will collapse in 2023 leading to a snap election.
The Liberal Democrats will not allow for more green antics when it comes to energy security. The German industry is reeling among rising energy costs and allowing nuclear power to run only until spring 2023 was hard to swallow for the Liberal Democrats.
With rising social benefits contributions and ballooning stated debt there will be a rift between the Liberal Democrats on one side and the Greens and Social Democrats on the other side. Result: The political uncertainty in Europe‘s largest economy will lead to a fall in the Euro of 10% against the USD. In parallel 10 year german government yields will rise from currently 1.8% to 3.0%
Market action : short the euro against the US dollar, short the bund future
Fubdlabs Incredible Predictions for 2023 equities
Social media stocks
We expect that Twitter in 2023 will face revenue declines given that major advertisers pull away from the Musk lead platform.
Elon Musk will sell Twitter for €20 billion ( a 24bn USD loss for Elon) to Meta (former Facebook) and receive Meta shares.
The market will applaud this step by Mark Zuckerberg since he will fold ailing Facebook into Twitter and solve Facebooks lacklustre growth problems.
Meanwhile Elon Musk understands that he should have bought UBER instead of ploughing $44 billion into Twitter to create a global UBER/Tesla mobility platform, but now it’s too late.
Expect more pressure on Tesla given intesifying competition and Elon Musk’s unpredictable CEO antics. We expect Tesla shares to fall by 30% towards a still astounding 300bn USD Market cap. At this halved market value Tesla will still be 3 times the market value of Mercedes. Another risk for Tesla: Chinese consumers being pressured by the communist party not to buy Shanghai produced Tesla and instead opt for Nio, Geely, BYD cars.
Looking beyond 2023 it is very likely that a Chinese car manufacturer will be the worlds most valuable car company leaving Tesla a trailing second
Another incredible forecast
The US government will ban Chinese owned TikTok ( owned by ByteDance) in the United States resulting doubling of share price for competitor SNAP and giving a boost to Meta shares
Market Action :
Long German and Chinese Car makers via ETF
Long US Social Media via ETF
Fundlab’s 2023 Incredible Predictions for the bitcoin price
After a horror year for the crypto world that lasted much longer than the “crypto winter” the mega collapse of Terra Luna and FTX which destroyed crypto value close to 100bn USD was a final wake up call for more regulation in crypto land.
And by the way : investors understand that the term “collapse” in most cases should be labelled “outright fraud“.
What to expect for bitcoin in 2023?
Expect the price of bitcoin to fall towards zero for a short period in 2023 and the recovering towards USD 3000 from currently 16000 USD versus a peak of approx. 68000 USD in November 2021. The reason: the unhackable bitcoin network will be attacked by a massive, so called „51%-hack“, damaging the trust in the distributed ledger technology.
Market action: short bitcoin via ETF
Travel / Leisure / Art
Travel & leisure – Incredible Predictions for 2023
After a strong tourism bounce last summer expect more people rushing to the mediterranean beaches in 2023. The new hotspots are the old hotspots. Hotel room prices will soar. Be prepared to find no 5-star room priced below 1000 USD per night around August 15th, the peak summer season in Europe for 5-Star hotels in Ibiza, Mykonos, Mallorca, St. Tropez and Porto Cervo.
The strong tourism activity will be a strong boon for tourism geared economies such as Greece, Spain, Egypt and Turkey.
Market Action: buy the hotel ETFs and airline ETFs
The Art market – Incredible Predictions for 2023
The most expensive art work ever sold was the Salvator Mundi by Leonardo da Vinci once owned by Russian oligarch Rybolevey and sold for some USD 450 million in November 2017 via Sothebys to the Saudi crown.
Remember that this year recorded the largest auction result for a single art collection when Christie’s sold the art collection of former Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen for USD 1.5bn with a George Seurat painting „Les Poseuses“ being the star lot for a price of 149 USD million.
Expect in 2023 prices for art works to rise and the chances are high that a single art work will fetch more that half a billion USD for the first time with Arab state fund or Arab royal family buying, either a French impressionist painting or a painting from Italian renaissance-era.
Also prices for watches should recover again after a slump of 25-30% in 2022 with the „crypto bros“ falling away as incremental buyers for coveted brands such as Rolex, Patek and Audemars. Although we expect crypto to have a tough time in 2023 higher inflation will push more cash into high-end watches.
Ecological predictions for 2023
The summer of 2022 was hot. The next summers will be hotter.
Get prepared for max 45 degrees Celsius ( 113 Fahrenheit) in Central Europe resulting in droughts that will see the main european Rhine River to run dry and interrupting the flow of goods all the way from Basel to Rotterdam.
Trucks will have to make up for missing shipping capacities. Cooling beverages such as beer and spritz alcopops will rise in price. Also expect food prices to rise given large scale droughts.
Market Action: buy beverage and soft drink ETFs , buy wheat & corn ETFs
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